Recent Comments on Blurbomat
nobody commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
We disagree. That’s what makes a market.
Pelosi talking today about “momentum”. People with real momentum don’t talk about momentum, they point to announced yes votes. Not too many of those. They aren’t speeding up, and they’re running out of runway.
link | 03.19.2010, 4:09 pm
TheNephew commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
Sometimes American’s have to just deal with it. Like liberals had to when it came to the PATRIOTACT, those are the consequences of elections. Same thing when Congress told America its time to treat african Americans contractually the same as whites (Civil Rights Act) or that blacks have an equal political potency (Voting Rights Act). During those times, only slim, if any, majority was in favor of passing such sweeping legislation, and yet, it got passed. Was it divisive? Yes, but is that inherently bad? Nope.
Next, resorting to these tactics doesn’t mean anything close to “the bill is unpopular”, as was shown above, these tactics are used frequently by both parties in numerous contexts.
Furthermore, any bill that makes dramatic changes to the law will carry with it changes that some, if not a majority, will find divisive or unacceptable. When laws are made, eventually it comes time to just deal with the fact that the opposition created a law that you have to live with. If it really is that unpopular, then work hard to get the other guy elected in the next election cycle. But stating that a law shouldn’t be forced upon the public ignores the very function of what laws do. A key example: ALL CRIMINAL LAWS deny individuals the ability to enjoy the liberties they would have without a government. Are there those who wish they could smoke pot in
link | 03.19.2010, 2:03 pm
blurb commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
I strongly doubt that once the numbers roll in that this is going to be as unpopular as it is being sold.
The lies from conservatives during the cycle of this bill have shown a staggering amount of hypocrisy. The only lies bigger than the ones being told about this bill were the ones that got us into Iraq on false pretenses.
This bill is a good first step in stopping corporations from discriminating against individuals.
link | 03.19.2010, 1:53 pm
nobody commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
The point is that the resort to these tactics reflects the unpopularity of the bill, both in the Democratic party and generally. Passing a bill that large with so slim a margin is a recipe for divisiveness, as large portions of the country will find themselves under a law they find onerous and against their interest.
Do you want to persuade people to share your vision? or force them to under law? They’ll obey the law, but they’ll also work to change it. When they start arguing against your party and the law, you’ll only have yourself to blame.
link | 03.19.2010, 1:42 pm
TheNephew commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
With regard to “Majority of people don’t want this bill”
And if you want specific polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html
Note, even with the lopsided polling from Rasmussen and Fox News, there isn’t a majority opposition to the bill. To be frank, You’re wrong about the majority being against the bill.
The fact that individuals are against the bill by about 50% shows little to anyone.
Or you could start questioning the methodology of the questioning:
associating Obama and Democrats with the bill can skew answers: For the next argument all information was received from the actual poll, here http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/toplines/pt_survey_toplines/march_2010/toplines_health_care_reform_march_13_14_2010
Polling LIKELY voters as opposed to polling ACTUAL voters makes a huge difference, (The difference being that likely voters encompasses a larger group of people who are generally distrusting of politics and don’t vote or are politically apathetic, or are simply not representative of the actual voter[the actual voter being the person a congress person and the president is worried about])
ALSO, the polling notes fail to mention the geographic locations and distributions of who was polled (polling heavily in republican states as opposed to even distribution can certainly change your numbers)
FINALLY the Margin of error for the poll is only 1% off of the aggregated poll from RCP as linked above.
Next time, instead of blindly following polls, think about the things that go into polls and the large number of variances that can create different outcomes. I won’t disagree that there is close to a majority against the bill, but at most
link | 03.19.2010, 1:14 pm
nobody commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
See Table, row labelled “Change in Deficit”. This adds the program costs to the financing mechanisms, and totals $119bn in reduction from now to 2019.
Note that most of the reduction comes by 2014; it’s a deficit adder in 2016 and 2017, then reduces the deficit in 2018. Those post 2018 deficit reductions come from the imposition of the excise tax, if you believe Congress will actually levy the tax. It seems unlikely that Democrats would, as the unions hate it. Yes, they would formally have to replace the tax with something else under PAYGO. Yes, they break PAYGO all the time.
And that is if other cost savings like Medicare cost reductions are realized, also unlikely, and if benefit costs remain as estimated.
CBO scores this stuff as if Congress will do as it says it will, per the assumptions its told to use. No one is obliged to make the same assumptions in analyzing these figures.
link | 03.19.2010, 12:58 pm
TheNephew commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
Frankly, everyone needs to stop arguing that using aggressive parliamentary tactics are illegitimate to pass policy. Both parties use these tactics FREQUENTLY to get minute to large pieces of legislation passed. Resorting to them does not somehow lead to illegitimacy of the bill. All that is requried is that both houses of Congress vote on the same bill, and then that bill must be sent to the President (See Art II Constitution, Ins v. Chadha, NYC v. Clinton) As long as the bill meets these requirements, there is no problem with passage.
I’ll make the point more bluntly, when the civil rights act was being passed (1964) an overwhelming number of american’s disagreed with passing the legislation (and only passed it after a very strange confluence of events, Kennedy was assassinated, numerous back room deals in the House and its committees), see Legislation, Frickey and Eskridge pg 1.
Famous examples of parliamentary procedure tactics:
-Discharge petition to remove Civil Rights act from Rules committee to the floor (WITHOUT VOTING ON THE BILL in committee, this has occurred less than 20 times)
Strom Thurmond, longest filibuster, Civil Rights Act 1957
Orin Hatch, Longest post cloture filibuster
The point is that parliamentary tactics are part of legislation. They get used frequently, both parties do it. Stop getting upset over it. It doesn’t mean government is corrupt, in fact it ensures that vital legislation, according to the majority, gets passed. (See PATRIOTACT, CRA, VRA, VAWA, current Healthcare bill, Social
link | 03.19.2010, 12:56 pm
steve-o commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
Still not seeing the reduction of the deficit. I read through it all and (admittedly I have a hard time understanding it completely) I don’t really see anything that shows it reducing the deficit. The only thing I saw was an increase of 794 billion to the deficit (that was in the 3 page of the main graph I believe).
If Rasmussen trends conservative, then how about Gallup (sp?)? These are respected pollsters in any field.
link | 03.19.2010, 8:18 am
nobody commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
The tells I’m seeing show some progress and a few positive indicators. Odds of passage look better this morning than last night. Going to be very close in the House, and I haven’t seen any serious analysis of prospects in the Senate reconciliation process.
link | 03.19.2010, 6:55 am
blurb commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
I think they’ll have the votes by this weekend.
link | 03.18.2010, 10:14 am
blurb commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
CBO:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf
link | 03.18.2010, 10:13 am
blurb commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
Steve-o, the CBO disagrees with you:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf
Also, Rasmussen trends conservative.
link | 03.18.2010, 10:13 am
susanruffin@bellsouth.net commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
Jon,
Balderdash.
link | 03.18.2010, 9:05 am
nobody commented on Final Stretch Bullshit
You didn’t just deal with it, you went to the polls. And won, congratulations. We’ll do the same.
That we go to the polls against this is a negative for _you_. Our movement is, in and of itself, good for the Republic. The necessity of beating you at the polls, because you won’t listen to us, will cause us frustration, and you bitterness. That’s not good and not necessary.
And it’s bad for you because you lose an opportunity to persuade. Had you listened and tried to accommodate us, over the long-term and not just this month or year, you would have persuaded many of your principles and won a firmer victory. Now we won’t be interested in listening and accommodating until _we’re_ in charge, as you obviously cannot be trusted.
Much of this, by the way, applies just as much to the prior Administration and its Congresses. They were often divisive, and they have paid a price. You’re making very similar mistakes.
I think all of this squabbling has been generated the bubble politics following from a seemingly infinite capacity to borrow. That’s going away. Our political class, Dem and GOP, is essentially a bunch of hacks trying to exploit a historic moment of general indifference to government spending. We’ll soon be forced to deal with deficits, and the adults will once again come to the fore and we’ll be done with the current pack of losers. But
link | 03.19.2010, 4:19 pm